Matthew
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Right now, there are some in stock. I could buy them. But I am not.
Right now, the BTC is $13.50, and there's no (rational) reason to believe it's going up any time soon.
The payoff period for $129.99 + $7.56 shipping is 79 days at the current difficulty, which is about to go up in 1.3 days (sure, not a huge leap, but it WILL shave off some earnings).
So 82 or 83 days to payoff -- sorry, but that's too risky for me.
I know some people are critical of me on Bitcoin.org. I'm the party pooper that says, "Hey, the Emperor has no clothes on at all!" But I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I don't want to be competing with hundreds of other miners to unload 5830's at fire sale prices in a month or two.
You know what scares me the most about Bitcoin?
The fact that every 2016 blocks (about 11 days), 100,800 new BTC are minted. That means that, to maintain the CURRENT price of $13.50, we'd need $1,360,000 of NEW MONEY entering the system every 11 days. Considering that Bitcoin isn't *that* convenient, popular, or necessary for day-to-day life yet -- and the Mainstream Media seems to have declared war on it -- I see the market correcting even further until it hits an equilibrium -- which unfortunately we be lower.
So we need *growth in demand* to keep the price stable, nevermind getting a higher price.
What does that mean for my rigs? Well, I'll be making less from them. Hopefully something will happen to increase BTC demand -- because that's the ONLY thing that's going to raise BTC prices long-term. BTC can't rise in price from a bunch of speculators buying & selling -- if anything, the price would go down over time from attrition (as Mt. Gox & Tradehill -- "the house" if you will -- take their cuts)
Just my .02 BTC.
Matthew
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| Posted Jul 5, 2011, 5:29 am |
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Matthew
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Oh, I forgot to mention --
I looked at eBay -- the COMPLETED LISTINGS -- and it looks like the going rate at eBay is coming down.
Selling for $140 with free shipping -- and you can't ship a 5830 for less than $8.
Let's see...$129.99 plus $7.56 shipping, then I have to ship it to somebody -- I wouldn't be making anything.
So I don't want it for mining (83 day payoff), nor to resell on eBay.
Never thought I'd be passing up a 5830 like this -- I'll admit, it takes some getting used to. My brain is almost hard-wired to snatch up these things. By my reason has to override my emotions -- things are different now.
If you don't operate by reason, you're a fool. And we all know "a fool and his money are soon parted".
Unless BTC shoots up to $18 or $20 in a few days, I made the right decision.
Matthew
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.........................
Trade Hill -- The best way to convert Bitcoins to US Dollars and more! Sign up using this link, and save 10% off your trade commissions for life!
http://www.tradehill.com/?r=TH-R11524
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| Posted Jul 5, 2011, 5:29 am |
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Matthew
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Believe me, I've been doing a lot of deep thinking about Bitcoin and its fundamentals.
For example, as more and more people mine, the difficulty goes up. What it basically does is slice the pie into smaller and smaller pieces -- the pie stays the same size.
But which situation is more likely to result in a higher % of BTC being sold immediately:
1000 miners getting the BTC produced in a given week
OR
2000 miners
I'd say 2000 miners. It's a smaller piece for each, but statistically you're more likely to get more of them sold, since the smaller miners (newcomers, etc.) gotta pay off that $160 card that bought on eBay. Just kidding -- but you get what I mean.
It is true that larger miners (or those with paid off hardware) are more likely to sit on their bitcoins, hoping for the price to increase.
But as more money is taken from them, and given to small-time miners -- I think more and more of the newly-minted 7200 coins/day are going to head straight for Mt. Gox or Tradehill.
If the same money went to a smaller group of miners, it would be more likely that a larger number of BTC would be hoarded.
Matthew
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.........................
Trade Hill -- The best way to convert Bitcoins to US Dollars and more! Sign up using this link, and save 10% off your trade commissions for life!
http://www.tradehill.com/?r=TH-R11524
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| Posted Jul 5, 2011, 5:30 am |
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